A Look Back at "Rosy Scenario"
A lasting label to this day
While writing about the tendency of President’s to want to “enhance” economic projections, I was reminded of a fictional character created by columnist George Will. I thought you might find a little more background coming from the Reagan era of interest.
The Birth of "Rosy Scenario": How George Will Created a Political Legend
A tale of presidential optimism, journalistic wit, and the power of a perfect phrase
During the early years of Ronald Reagan's presidency, as the administration rolled out ambitious economic projections promising dramatic tax cuts alongside balanced budgets, one phrase emerged to capture the skepticism many felt about these rosy forecasts. But who exactly coined the term "Rosy Scenario" that became synonymous with unrealistic government projections?
The Columnist Who Named a Legend
The answer takes us to November 24, 1983, and the pages of The Washington Post. Conservative columnist George Will, writing in his piece "Miss Rosy Scenario vs. the Dismal Scientist," gave birth to what would become one of Washington's most enduring political metaphors.
Will didn't just critique Reagan's optimistic economic assumptions—he personified them. In his characteristically vivid prose, he described the budget battles around 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue as a neighborhood dispute between competing worldviews. On one side stood Martin Feldstein, Reagan's chief economic adviser, "he of the woeful countenance," who believed the mounting federal deficits required both spending cuts and tax increases. On the other side lived Reagan's faith in growth-driven solutions, which Will memorably characterized as the president's "mistress, a charmer known as Rosy Scenario."
From Forecast to Folk Legend
The Reagan administration had been using phrases like "rosy forecast" in their economic projections since early 1981, when they predicted dramatic economic turnarounds that would balance the budget by 1983 despite massive tax cuts. Critics immediately questioned these assumptions as wildly optimistic. But it was Will's satirical personification that transformed dry economic debate into memorable political theater.
The nickname stuck because it perfectly captured something essential about political promises. "Rosy Scenario" became shorthand for any government forecast that relied on unrealistically optimistic assumptions to make the numbers work—what budget director David Stockman's colleagues were already calling his "wishful forecasts on economic growth."
A Four-Decade Legacy
What makes Will's coinage remarkable is its staying power. More than 40 years later, budget analysts, economists, and journalists still invoke "Rosy Scenario" whenever governments present overly optimistic projections. The phrase has outlasted the Reagan administration, survived multiple economic cycles, and continues to appear in contemporary fiscal debates.
From Obama's budget projections to Trump's tax plans, every administration has faced accusations of keeping company with Will's fictional charmer. The Congressional Budget Office itself has been known to issue what critics call "Rosy Scenario" forecasts, proving that even supposedly nonpartisan institutions aren't immune to optimistic assumptions.
The Power of the Perfect Phrase
Will's creation demonstrates something important about political communication: the right metaphor at the right moment can outlive the circumstances that created it. By transforming abstract economic projections into a vivid character, Will didn't just critique Reagan's policies—he created a permanent part of Washington's vocabulary.
"Rosy Scenario" endures because it captures a timeless truth about politics: the temptation to promise everything to everyone by assuming the best possible outcomes. Whether it's economic growth, revenue projections, or spending estimates, there's always a rosy scenario waiting in the wings to make the impossible seem inevitable.
In our current era of trillion-dollar deficits and competing fiscal fantasies, Rosy Scenario remains as relevant as ever—a reminder that some things in Washington never change, no matter how much we might want them to.